A recent shock poll from Virginia suggests the 2024 presidential race may be far tighter in the state than many expected. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a razor-thin lead over former President Donald Trump, with 48% support compared to Trump’s 46%, according to a survey conducted by Research America Inc. between September 3-9, 2024. This slim margin, within the poll’s margin of error, indicates that Virginia—a state that has been trending blue for over a decade—might once again be in play for Republicans.
This shift is significant, as Democrats have dominated statewide races in Virginia since 2009, with the notable exception of Governor Glenn Youngkin's victory in 2021. Youngkin’s win had already raised questions about whether the state could still be considered a swing state, and the latest poll results seem to reinforce that view).
Early voting begins in VIRGINIA where the latest polls show that state neck and neck.
Trump supporters are swarming the polls chanting "TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!" and "Make America Great Again!"
We have the energy. We have the enthusiasm.
Let's do the work. Let's win. pic.twitter.com/azZMjACBpt
— Jack Posobiec (@PosobiecJa76200) September 20, 2024
The race becomes even more intriguing when factoring in third-party candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, garnered 2% of the vote, a small yet potentially decisive factor if his supporters were to shift to Trump, tipping the balance in his favor. Analysts note that this is a critical reason both parties are ramping up their efforts in Virginia. “This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” remarked political science professor Stephen Farnsworth.
Governor Youngkin has also played a significant role in shaping Virginia’s political landscape. His popularity remains high, with a 57% approval rating, making him a key ally for Trump in the state. Youngkin, who has actively encouraged early voting, has made it clear that he believes the state's shift is no fluke, emphasizing how much closer the race is compared to 2020.
BREAKING: In-person voting is officially underway in Virginia, and it looks like Trump-supporting patriots have flooded the polls. Meanwhile, there's ZERO Democrat enthusiasm
If Trump wins Virginia. He wins everything
A new poll shows that the race is a statistical tie. If… pic.twitter.com/3HCK5DSWwU
— George (@BehizyTweets) September 20, 2024
Republicans are viewing this as a golden opportunity, particularly given the energy and enthusiasm from Trump supporters at early voting events. Chants of "Make America Great Again" and "Trump 2024" have filled the air as early voting kicked off on September 20, with Trump’s grassroots base eager to turn out voters.
For Democrats, however, there are reasons for concern beyond the presidential contest. The Senate race between incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican challenger Hung Cao has also tightened, with Kaine leading by 6 points, 49% to 43%. While this is a relatively comfortable lead, it is still smaller than many expected.
The close polling in Virginia is part of a larger national trend that shows Trump performing more competitively than anticipated in several key battleground states. Republicans hope that economic issues, particularly inflation, will drive voters toward Trump. Youngkin, in particular, has criticized the Biden-Harris administration for unleashing inflation and claims that Trump’s economic policies offer a better alternative.
As the campaign moves forward, both parties are likely to invest significant resources in Virginia. The Harris campaign has already established 25 field offices in the state, while Trump’s team has 19. Both campaigns recognize that victory in Virginia could serve as a crucial indicator for the overall direction of the 2024 race.
